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#player1 Nick_Fraher Nick Fraher
#player2 Michael_Kapernaros Michael Kapernaros
>Nick_Fraher: IIIII -IIIII +0 0
>Michael_Kapernaros: GHOTUYZ 8G YUTZ +32 32
#note Chickened out of TOUGHY. Grrph.
>Nick_Fraher: ACKQ H7 Q.ACK +20 20
>Michael_Kapernaros: GHJOOOT 11E HOO. +22 54
#note GOO(K), same spot, is clearly better. Really not sure why I played HOO(K). Also a consideration: (C)OHOG. I liked that less, but Quackle has them almost at a dead heat (HOOK .4% better at a 2k 4-ply sim).
>Nick_Fraher: NOOST 12H SNOOT +34 54
>Michael_Kapernaros: BGJOTTW 10D JOW +39 93
#note Best, despite iffy leave.
>Nick_Fraher: BD K11 B.D +12 66
>Michael_Kapernaros: BGGORTT 12C GROG +25 118
#note Maybe TROG, but it's not like BGT is particularly decent... I don't think his fish really changes my play much. Duck agrees.
>Nick_Fraher: II -II +0 66
>Michael_Kapernaros: BEFIRTT 14J BEFIT +39 157
#note Didn't know I5 FRI(T)T was a word, and I'm not sure it changes my play. 14 points is still a lot to pass up just beacuse of the exchange 2...
>Nick_Fraher: ??AEGRT O8 TRiAGEs +84 150
>Michael_Kapernaros: AELNRTV 15G LAVE +25 182
#note Picked this over TRAVE because 29 C/27 V available, and because I have an irrational fear/hatred of the letter L. FWIW, Q agrees again.. though I put less stock in this analysis. A ton of plays are really close here.
>Nick_Fraher: IILP N5 PILI +10 160
>Michael_Kapernaros: AINRSTV 10J VAR +22 204
#note Oh man, I spent like three minutes looking for VISTA and didn't see it. That said, Quackle things the leave is bad enough where it's not best anyway... I also considered exchanging V. Quackle again likes my play.. I actually like it less than VAN in the same spot though, because of the extra N in the bag.
>Nick_Fraher: EIMOR O1 MOIRE +28 188
>Michael_Kapernaros: EIINNST I6 NI. +16 220
#note Yep, a shameless setup. And again, best... given that he has a random rack. And to be fair, he's just played five tiles...and there are no blanks available.
>Nick_Fraher: ADDEELS 5C DELEADS +72 260
#note Well, shoot.
>Michael_Kapernaros: EEEINST C2 NEE.IEST +72 292
#note Well, I got lucky too. Quackle prefers this (60.6% wins) to the only other bingo available, L3 TEENSIE(R) (57.8% wins) over 5k sims. I mostly saw NEE(D)IEST and ignored the R. Again, great that it was best, but whoops... giving back the triple is scary with all that large stuff out there, especially if he has the...
>Nick_Fraher: HUUW 8A WU.HU +45 305
#note ... H to go with the S on C8.
>Michael_Kapernaros: ACDFPXY 6E AX +52 344
#note But I get super lucky with the X... this whole sequence more or less played itself.
>Nick_Fraher: EIMR H1 MIRE. +27 332
>Michael_Kapernaros: CDFINPY 2F PY.C +17 361
#note This is my first decision where I really go off the rails. I see a lot of low-point stuff in the tile bag, so my thought is that I can outrace him if I take away his good bingo lanes. N(I)DIFY is best for this purpose - a word I don't know. The option where I don't play here is PF(U)I - which I discard because I hate the leave - but then if I don't draw any vowels back, his rack is probably swamped with vowels. Doing this, I'm about a coinflip says Q - the only play really better than that is 2G or 2E NIDIFY, and 2G is best because it shuts down the R lane. My play is fifth-best.
>Nick_Fraher: AAELOR M2 AREOLA +24 356
>Michael_Kapernaros: DFINNST B1 FIND +25 386
#note Hooray, I even tracked right.
>Nick_Fraher: AEINU G1 A.E +14 370
>Michael_Kapernaros: NST M12 SN.T +14 400
#note Worse of two outs. Better: 7B N(E)ST 15.
>Michael_Kapernaros: (INU) +6 406
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