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#player1 JD JD
#player2 Nigel_Richards Nigel Richards
>JD: DEIMSST -D +0 0
#note two years later, this is still the only time I've beaten Nigel. The game was mysteriously missing from my computer. fortunately I found the original scoresheet. I'm proud that I saw this move at the time.
>Nigel_Richards: BEEFY H8 BEEFY +34 34
>JD: EIMOSST 11B SEMISO.T +76 76
>Nigel_Richards: AFHLOO I4 LOOFAH +33 67
>JD: CDEOQRS E10 Q. +11 87
#note I block a few of my own lanes, but nonetheless this seems worth it compared to CORED - I bingo 70% of the time next turn. However, if I assume that the S and E at row 11 are going to be blocked next turn my bingo percentage drops to something more like ~55%, so against a more defensive opponent it might be wiser to take the points. then again loofah is probably not the move of a defensive person anyway.
>Nigel_Richards: EILP 12A PILE +30 97
>JD: ACDEORS H1 CODA +27 114
#note nothing fits, have to decide how much to blow up this rack. I think this took me a long time to choose but it seems right.
>Nigel_Richards: BDELRU J1 BURLED +27 124
>JD: ADEIRSU 1J .URIED +30 144
#note still no bingo, might as well chase the blanks...a theme for the rest of this game.
>Nigel_Richards: AENPUV 3B UNPAVE. +28 152
>JD: AGKNSTV B2 G.NK +18 162
#note my first serious mustake of the game, KAVA leaving GNST would be awesome with 6 Is to come, but the play that wins the sim is STANK at 13C. Who cares if it leaves GV - two blanks unseen on an increasingly closed and bingo-unfriendly board = turnover time!! (and he has a random rack). It took me until after the tournament to realize that played pretty poorly for the next few moves...
>Nigel_Richards: EIRW D1 WI.ER +28 180
>JD: AEGMSTV C8 GAV.. +10 172
#note I was quite pressed for time already because of trying to figure out what to do with my missed bingo racks. This gets a much better rating compared to my last play while still being wrong. It's closer this time but I should be playing STAVE at13C to flip over all the tiles I can. Even after GAVEL I'm only bingoing 35% of the time - this board is deceptively closed. Failed to adjust!
>Nigel_Richards: ERX A12 .REX +39 219
>JD: EEMNSTT E2 T.ME +22 194
#note TAME is the best fishy play but TEGMEN at 8A kills the sim (must've just missed it). Even plays like STEM at 13C sim comparably...turnover!
>Nigel_Richards: AEGI 8A AG.IE +24 243
>JD: ENOOSTT 13C SNOOT +37 231
#note with another non-go I finally figure out that I need to stop fishing and flip over some letters instead....
>Nigel_Richards: AHOW G7 WAHO. +39 282
>JD: ??AETUZ O1 .EUTZiAs +101 332
#note of course I get unfairly rewarded here in spite of having flipped over 31 tiles to nigel's 38 to this point.
>Nigel_Richards: IJLT 8K JILT. +12 294
#note nigel made this awesome play after about 30 seconds of thinking...he must dump the J while also creating a real lane for himself. this forks the board in a way that gives him a chance.
>JD: ACDINRR L4 RANC.D +18 350
#note championship player has me about 75% to win this game, but it's not finding my best plays. I went through all the bingoes I could find and summed the probability of him hitting each on row 14 and columns L and M to decide which to block. Seeing that he had SALINITY, INSANITY and ANTLIONS on the right (as well as LANOSITY and NITINOLS which I missed) I blocked there since the only scary rack on row 14 was NATIONS (I missed INANITY over the board). So far as I can tell, after RANCID I only lose if IY is in the bag or OS - 33/36 winning percentage for me. The only alternative I can come up with is playing one tile, but if he bingoes on the bottom row I never catch him anyway.
>Nigel_Richards: IINOSTY 6A SYN +35 329
#note mercifully for me he didn't have it.
>JD: AINR 14F RAIN +12 362
>JD: (IIOT) +8 370
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