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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Pat_Barrett Pat Barrett
>Jim_Burlant: ??GIISY 8D YoGInIS +76 76
#note Luck box! SIGnIfY is a little better due to vowel placement; maybe so, but I'm just glad I saw this.
>Pat_Barrett: IJ F6 JI. +27 27
>Jim_Burlant: ADDEINR E8 .RDAINED +68 144
#note Luck box!!! The other bingo is J8 SARDINED. This is best, 86% to win in a short sim.
>Pat_Barrett: ALMNORS 15E .OLMAN +27 54
#note This was Pat's rack. She saw a no-go ALMONERS but missed the 7, NORMALS, which plays at 9I. If you miss the bingo, as she did, this is her best option.
>Jim_Burlant: EILORTU H3 OUTLI.ER +58 202
#note This is ridiculous!!!! The small consolation for Pat - had she found NORMALS, I would have replied with OUTLIERS down the O column for 77. Anyway, I chose this for the better defensive position; while 7I OUTLIER was an option, I felt that giving her a 3x3 to work with was foolish - why give her a place in which she can erase my 140-point lead in a single turn? Quackle wants me to play at 7I and docks me 8 points for this. Pfft. Regardless of what the duck says, I'd make this play again.
>Pat_Barrett: ACKR 13B CRA.K +22 76
>Jim_Burlant: BEEIIMN B10 MIN.E +30 232
#note Best play. Just under 98% to win in a short sim - nothing else worth consideration. At this point, even with the open A column, I was feeling very confident that this was a bag job in the making. However, the worm was about to turn.
>Pat_Barrett: AANO A8 ANOA +18 94
>Jim_Burlant: BBEFITU B6 FUB +20 252
#note I rejected D4 TUBBY due to leave and lack of defensive strength, as this kills her easiest bingo line. This is a strong choice but apparently it's not quite best. Q likes TUBBY by 0.1% winning chances and 2 equity points.
>Pat_Barrett: AINOPST 4F OP.NTIAS +70 164
#note Q says she should have played UTOPIANS at 4H for 2 more points. Whatever - even with this, she's only 3% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: BCEIRTV 3C VERB +22 274
#note Missed a much better play here: D2 BREVITY scores 30 and should have been the play. I'm surprised that this doesn't sim worse than it does, as I only sacrifice 1% winning chances and 4 equity at 1300+ 2-ply iterations. I really don't think I made a good play here, and I think it's a bigger mistake than Quackle thinks it is, as it gives back Z and Q bombs among other things. Fortunately for me, I didn't get burned.
>Pat_Barrett: AFR 15A ARF +28 192
>Jim_Burlant: CDEILNT D12 L.D +15 289
#note By far the best equity play I have. All I saw was DENTICLE, which doesn't play, and a check of Zyzzyva shows that there is no other 8 in this set of letters. If you want to dump the rack, the play is 14I LENTIC, which I didn't know. Given her next rack, I certainly wish I had known that word.
>Pat_Barrett: EHOPRSU K9 UPHROES +84 276
#note The only bingo for Pat, and she's back in the game, though Q only thinks she has 21% winning chances.
>Jim_Burlant: CEEINQT J6 QI. +32 321
#note This was auto-pilot, but the sim result is interesting - while this wins the sim (duh), ENTICE A1 also sims very well, presumably because it takes away the possibility of a huge Z play. Maybe, maybe not. I'd make this play again.
>Pat_Barrett: OWW 5L WOW +16 292
>Jim_Burlant: ACEEENT A1 CETANE +32 353
#note The only 8 in this set of letters is ANTECEDE, and it doesn't play. As for this position, what's the threat? Something hooking her S down the O column? Or is it deception and is she really looking at something like ZYGOTE A1? A play like TEE 6M could just as easily backfire and give her what she needs for something like SEXY O5 if she's sitting on some godawful crap like OOSVXYZ. Not knowing for sure what the threat was, I figured there were worse things I could do than turn 6, score 32, take out the A column and prevent something like ZYGOTE. Q agrees - this is best.
>Pat_Barrett: EILSVX O5 SILVEX +58 350
>Jim_Burlant: ADEHUYZ G11 HAY +32 385
#note Between my rack and what's unseen, I can't lose this game. Since I saw that I could score well here and still guarantee myself at least high 20's with the Z next turn, I decided on this. If Quackle is to be believed, best is to fish the Y.
>Pat_Barrett: EEGOTTT L7 TOTE +11 361
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGOUZ 12I ZE.OED +32 417
>Pat_Barrett: EGT 13M TEG +15 376
>Pat_Barrett: (GU) +6 382
#note First, props to Pat - despite my hot start, she did a terrific job coming back and making a game of it. As for my own play - I really can't play much better than this. Beyond the VERB mistake, everything else I did was spot-on.
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