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#player1 Seth_Lipkin Seth Lipkin
#player2 Matthew_O'Connor Matthew O'Connor
>Seth_Lipkin: EFLW 8F FLEW +20 20
>Matthew_O'Connor: ESTV J6 VEST +26 26
>Seth_Lipkin: IIIIIII -IIIIIII +0 20
>Matthew_O'Connor: COT F6 CO.T +15 41
>Seth_Lipkin: ABDDN H4 BAND.D +13 33
#note This of course means he kept two consonants, probably a leave that adding a D makes it even more clunky, as otherwise BAND/VESTA would be better.
>Matthew_O'Connor: DIOP 4H .IPOD +20 61
>Seth_Lipkin: FMR K2 FR.M +18 51
>Matthew_O'Connor: BDIIINT J1 BI +13 74
#note Many mediocre choices here. Just about everything gives something away. Plays that don't give something away keep a bad leave. Moves that keep a good leave and don't give something away are exchanges. Now I'm going to give you the strengths and weaknesses of CP'S picks. CP's first pick is (R)IB. (R)IB is very similar to BI because it doesn't give much of anything back and it plays off BI. (R)IB's only potential weakness is that a play like AUSPEX would hurt a lot more off of RIB than off of BIPOD. That is however, very unlikely. The only other weakness of RIB, besides its low score (which everything has), is its somewhat bad leave. The next choice is BI(F)ID. BIFID scores 13 and keeps a good leave. BIFID, however, is not a good move because it is very likely for seth to have something like QATS, and even likelier for him to have something like HAMP that would score over 50. Although I am guaranteed a triple next turn, I would have to draw an A to use the B, and I would still only score around 20 points. The next choice is BI. BI is very similar to RIB. The only real weakness other than the bad leave is the long shot play of COWHER(B) or something like that. CP's next two picks are INTI at K9 and E9. Both of those are suicidal plays which give the opponent much too big a shot at playing something like QAID or FRIZ. The 6th pick was a play I was considering, (T)IDBIT. I considered TIDBIT in both spots. It cleans up the rack, but at the cost of opening up the board way too much. The final play I will talk about is BINIT. I also considered that. It is a good move as he is unlikely to have something huge to the triple. It is, however, a sacrifice of 5 points versus RIB or BI, which don't give really anything back. On the other hand, it keeps a much better leave. After a sim, (R)IB comes out clearly on top, with BI second. After removing the bottom sim picks of TIDBIT, BIFID, and INTI, (R)IB and BI are very close. (R)IB limits his bingo chances to 10.8%, as opposed to 12.1% after BI, and 20.5% after INTI. BI has us score the lowest on our next turn at 32, while we score 34 after RIB and 39 after INTI. BI, however, limits our opponent's next turn, as the opponent will not have a place to score after presumably using the B. After 9(!) minutes of thought, I went with BI, which appears to be the second best move. If I had to do it again I would do RIB. At the end of my 3064 many ply sim, (R)IB wins 53.89 percent of the time, BI wins 53.51 percent of the time, and INTI wins 51.27 percent of the time.
#rack1 ACEGLOR
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