| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
>Jim_Burlant: AAGHNST 8G HAG +14 14
#note No 7's, only 8's in this rack. This is definitely best. HANGS 8D does well statically but wins 2-1/2% less often and sims nearly 6 points down.
>Darrell_Day: AX 9G AX +25 25
>Jim_Burlant: AENOSTW 10F WOE +30 44
#note Close call in the sim between this and 10F WO. While I had the T, I figured it was possible Darrell did too and I didn't want to give him the easy run at the 2x2 with WO. Also, I couldn't resist the extra points: 30 for this vs. WO for 19. Q gives marginal preference to WO, but this is a very strong choice. The only other two plays worth consideration are 7G AW and 7F OW.
>Darrell_Day: EGVY 11C GYVE +27 52
>Jim_Burlant: ACEKNST D11 .ACK +26 70
#note The only 8 in this set of letters is CRANKEST. As for this, it was either this, YANK, or YAK. What made me opt for this: 26 points, ENST leave, and it sets the S up for a row 15 play. Q agrees: this is best, nothing else worth consideration.
>Darrell_Day: ADER 14B RA.ED +28 80
>Jim_Burlant: EEJNOST 15A JETS +55 125
#note Or JEES in the same location. Ok, the bingo hadn't materialized, but I had still just hit for 55 and was drawing 4 to ENO. I was feeling pretty good about this game after this turn. However, the tile gods had other ideas.
>Darrell_Day: AIMPRS 13C S.RIMP +41 121
#note I don't recall what Darrell's 7th letter was, but he told me post-mortem that he debated whether to keep his rack together with MARC 13A for 25, or if he should just take the points with this. Based on this rack fragment, he was right to take the points. While this wasn't a bingo and he's still only 39% to win, my next set of racks become very troublesome.
>Jim_Burlant: AELNNNO 9G ..ONAL +18 143
#note Wasn't sure what to do with this, as his play of SCRIMP had blocked my intended ANON. I considered 11H LENO but didn't like parting with my E. Best is apparently H12 OPEN with LENO as a close runner up. I thought I'd open a second triple to counter H15 since I didn't like the plays I had available, but Quackle disagrees with me. Maybe a mistake, maybe not - but it definitely set the game in motion for Darrell.
>Darrell_Day: ABMO 8L AMBO +30 151
>Jim_Burlant: DEEEENN 11H DENE +22 165
#note It's this or H12 EPEE - pretty much style preference as to whether you want to keep DENN or EEN. I chose this for leave considerations. 45% to win.
>Darrell_Day: ?EEIIRR 7H REI +22 173
#note Not sure I have this correct - I think this was his rack. If so, he missed BERIBERI N8. Nonetheless, this is his best non-bingo option. It also made me wonder if he was setting up the Q.
>Jim_Burlant: EEENNTU 6J TUNE +10 175
#note This plays at 12I for 14, but there wasn't any way I was going to leave J6 alone with the Q unseen and me sitting on this crap. This isn't one of the original choices, but it doesn't take long to propagate its way up to the top of the two-ply sim. Quackle says it's either this or 12I TUNE. I'd make this play again. 42% to win, but not for long.
>Darrell_Day: ?EGIRTW O7 T.WERInG +62 235
#note The only bingo and best play for Darrell. He's now 77% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: EEFFLNY N10 FE +28 203
#note Oh, what I would have given for one of those six (!!) unseen I's - FLYING for 42 would have been nice, but oh well. Not a whole lot else I can do with this. Despite the clunky leave, Q confirms - this is best. Darrell told me post-mortem this blocked his intended 37-point BOHO. 19% to win.
>Darrell_Day: BDHOO M11 HOOD +22 257
>Jim_Burlant: EFLNNUY C7 FLUN. +14 217
#note I took a couple of minutes on this turn before putting this down. FUNNY 15I is the seemingly obvious choice as it scores 24, unloads all the negative tiles and takes out row 15. However, I passed on it precisely for those two reasons. Given my deficit, FUNNY's 24 points just aren't enough given that shuts things down so Darrell doesn't have to. After FUNNY I'd still need a bingo, and I don't like my odds of bingoing down the C column if I burn my N's, and I can't bingo anywhere else without an S, which I currently don't have. I put this down to deliberately open the northwest quadrant. I now have a second place to score and I still have the Y to back hook HOOD. And if I have the right draw (AIZ, for instance) I have the huge play I need, either with ZANILY on row 15 or ZILL at 8A. While this does give back Z plays at 8A, if he's got the Z I'm already dead anyway. That makes this a risk worth taking. This doesn't show up among the kibitzer options, but the only play that beats it in a 2-ply sim is FUNNY. FUNNY ostensibly wins 19%; this wins 17. I'd make this play again.
>Darrell_Day: BIZ L13 BIZ +31 288
>Jim_Burlant: ENOSTVY 8A ON.Y +33 250
#note A conflicted sim. Q says N1 ENVOYS 35 is the play, presumably because it assumes the blank is still at large. This wins 4% less often, but sims with higher valuation than any options. Given his next 2 plays, I suspect ENVOYS would have lost by a lot more than I wound up losing by.
>Darrell_Day: IU H13 .IU +15 303
>Jim_Burlant: CEILSTV M3 VIL. +14 264
#note Again, Q's suggestions (N1 plays like EVICTS, CLEVIS) suddenly don't look so good if we assume Darrell has the blank. Having said that, I don't know why I couldn't think of the common VICE for 4 more points. Against an inferred blank, 14K VID wims 5.9%, this wins 5. Whatever, his next rack reduces those chances to absolutely zero.
>Darrell_Day: ?INOSTU A2 SOlUTI.N +57 360
>Jim_Burlant: CEIRSTT 4L T.C +10 274
#note The bingo doesn't play, and the game's a done deal. But, in case I draw the Q and don't have a bingo, I want to be able to play QATS for 49 points.Q says 3A OTIC ostensibly wins 8% and that 13C SCRIMPIT wins 11.
>Darrell_Day: AEILOPQ L8 ..P +5 365
#note The annotation isn't clear - I know he played for 5 on this turn and I can't find anything else that makes sense this pool.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIRST 7C .A +10 284
>Darrell_Day: AEILOQR 14J QA.. +34 399
>Jim_Burlant: ADEIRST E1 STAIDER +72 356
>Jim_Burlant: (EILOR) +10 366
|
