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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: ALNW 8G LAWN +14 14
>Jim_Burlant: DIIKLUV H5 KIV. +11 11
#note Yuck! There are (obviously) no good options. But as ugly as this rack is, there's no need to exchange. I didn't like 9D LIVID (keeping KU) and didn't like anything that didn't unload the V. At least this play didn't give up much of anything and it got rid of the asynergistic KV combination. And waxing optimstic, an EOT or similar draw could have me sitting pretty, so it isn't the worst thing I could do. Q says H2 DILUVIA is best, and that this is 4th behind J6 KIND 19 (leaving ILUV - no thanks) and 9F VID (leaving IKLU and setting up an A hook down the 2x2 - again, no thanks). Championship Player says this is a 5.8-point dog to DILUVIA. If you whiff on DILUVIA like I did, this looks like the best option you have despite what the sim says.
>Darrell_Day: BGILORV -BGIL +0 14
>Jim_Burlant: ADEILUZ J8 .AZI +33 44
#note The bingo doesn't play, and I flat-out missed ADZUKI/AZUKI on row 5 - those definitely look best. This scores well and is the sim bronze medalist, but I definitely needed to unload the U here. This wins 4% less often than AZUKI or ADZUKI, which the sim indicates are identically strong plays.
>Darrell_Day: AEEIRST K3 AERIEST +74 88
>Jim_Burlant: DEEILUX J5 EX +52 96
#note And the draw bails me out of the AZUKI miss. If I play AZUKI, I'm most likely dumping off the X for 42, which means this sequence of plays puts my 7 points ahead of where I'd have otherwise been...but the problem is that I'm still stuck with the U. Anyway, as for this choice, J4 DEX scores 57 but I liked this for the better rack balance if I was going to have to stick myself with the U. The sim says either play is very strong, but this is marginally better. 41% to win.
>Darrell_Day: EH L4 HE +23 111
>Jim_Burlant: DEILRUY K11 DULY +22 118
#note Best. 5F YUK also worth consideration if you don't mind trading 5 equity points and, more importantly, 12 points on the scoreboard. 47% to win.
>Darrell_Day: ELO 7F LE.O +18 129
>Jim_Burlant: EIINORT 5E OIN. +16 134
#note No playable 8's here. Normally I'd only dink off two tiles so I could draw to EINRT, but I didn't like what OI at J14 or L14 did to the board. Q agrees - it's either this or J14 OI.
>Darrell_Day: ?EEGMRT 3F EMiGR.TE +86 215
#note Best bingo for Darrell. Other options are 3F BREGMATE, 11C GEOMETR(ID), and 14D GEOMETRY. Darrell is winning 82% in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: CEIOORT 13I CO.OR +20 154
#note Q likes 2E COO, as it doesn't open up anything that's much more dangerous than already exists on row 2, and it leaves more of the rack intact. That said, it likes this a lot as well - while it's not one of the original choices, it winds up as one of 3 plays that stand out at the top of the sim. Other options are 14J OY (reckless IMO) and COYOTE 14I. I'd make this play again.
>Darrell_Day: ABCDEOV 2B CAVED +37 252
>Jim_Burlant: EFINSTW C1 F.WNIEST +80 234
#note Initially groaned to myself when the 7th tile in my rack was the W and was expecting to play FEW for 23 somewhere on the next turn. Thankfully he floated the A. This is the only bingo, and it wins 28% in a short sim.
>Darrell_Day: BGHOU 1E BOUGH +41 293
#note This is a huge play out of what was undoubtedly a hideous rack, but it underscores the difference between the kind of day tourney runner-up Darrell (who finished 4-2) was having and the day I was having. With the day I was having (see the Dalton game for proof of this) I would have not drawn an O until at least one turn after row 1 disappeared.
>Jim_Burlant: ?BEIOOR M6 BROOdIE. +61 295
#note Luckbox! This or BROOmIER in the same place are best. Back up to 37% winning chances in a short sim...but not for long.
>Darrell_Day: AADERTU D8 AURATED +71 364
#note Best bingo for Darrell (other options include B8 and B7 placements of this word), and he's winning 90%.
>Jim_Burlant: JMNPRUY N5 MY +30 325
#note I based this choice on (a) the lack of vowels in my rack and (b) the need to make sure that he could kill all bingo lines with one play in the southwest quadrant. Needless to say, I was also crossing my fingers that he didn't have a play to block the O column...but given how this tournament was going I should have known better. As for how this choice evaluates: Quackle agrees - it's best. 14B UPDRY sims with 7 points better valuation but wins less often than this.
>Darrell_Day: GILNO O1 LINGO +28 392
#note Of course. Sigh.
>Jim_Burlant: EJNNPRU 6B J.U +26 351
#note This is where I start struggling - the only plays that balance the rack better kill lines I need to stay open. Not surprisingly, Q's choice is 11C JAUP. But as I said, that kills the board. JAUP ostensibly wins 6.7% and this wins 2. His next play would have killed any chance I had if I'd played JAUP.
>Darrell_Day: AIQ 14B QA.I +28 420
>Jim_Burlant: ENNPPRS 13C P.P +26 377
#note Even though an unseen A could give me SNAPPER or SPANNER/PANNERS, I felt fishing was pointless given this board. Q agrees - it's this or PAN or NAP, all in the same place.
>Darrell_Day: DFI 15A FID +38 458
#note Play incorrectly scored as 39.
>Jim_Burlant: ENNRSS 15E ERNS +17 394
#note NESS F11 followed by ERN 12M saves 9 points of spread.
>Darrell_Day: AATT J1 TA. +17 475
>Jim_Burlant: NS 8M .NS +9 403
#note Best is SYN 14J 14.
>Jim_Burlant: (AT) +4 407
#note If you want to look at my own play, the opening rack was a head-scratching puzzle, and missing AZUKI was a minor scoreboard hit. The big question - does turning the extra tile and clearing the U with AZUKI instead of NAZI completely change the game? Or do I still draw one too many inert racks to contend with his onslaught of high scoring plays? Beyond those two imperfections, I played the rest of the game very strongly, with the only real mistake being my missing 9 points of spread at garbage time. Maybe winnable, maybe not. But it tells you the kind of day I was having that I lost a game in which I barely surrendered 30 equity (the last 9 of which came at garbage time) with no major misses resulted in a 68-point loss.
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