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#player1 Paul_Holser Paul Holser
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Paul_Holser: CENT 8G CENT +12 12
>Jim_Burlant: AAINRRW H3 RAINW.AR +62 62
#note The only bingo. 62% to win.
>Paul_Holser: EEFFSU 11D EFFUSE +36 48
#note I didn't as much as blink when this came down. How many nouns in our dictionary *don't* pluralize?
>Jim_Burlant: ?AIKNOQ J6 QA. +32 94
#note You'd think that the 32-point Q dump would be the no-brainer best play. Once I saw it, I stopped looking. Quackle says that, while this is a very strong play (this is sim runner up, winning 1/2% less often and sims 2 points down on the sim winner), I missed a better one: KINO K5. While it's counterintuitive to hold onto the Q and break up the rack for only 23 points when I can dump the Q for 32, I can see why Q thinks KINO is so strong. Currently, CENT can be back-hooked for a 2x2 with 3 unseen S's, 7 unseen O's, and 3 unseen U's. KINO eliminates that threat. Secondly, KINO leaves me AQ? and sets up a 65-point QAT/QI on the next turn. The only gotcha is if I play KINO and Paul plays something like HA(T) J6 on the next turn and snuffs out my impending Q dump. Is it worth it to break up the rack and sacrifice 9 scoreboard points now to set up a potential 65 on a board that otherwise might not have a good Q dump the next turn if the spot disappears? Quackle says it is. I didn't see KINO when I saw the Q dump, but I have to admit I'd have had to have thought long and hard about it before making the play. If you see all the options in this position, what this comes down to is how lucky do I feel?
>Paul_Holser: DEIV 12A VIED +30 78
>Jim_Burlant: ?HIJKNO K3 KOJI +41 135
#note No-brainer best play - the only plays that score more (JOINT/JOINS B10) require that I burn the blank for only 54 points where this one scores 41. Nothing else that saves the blank scores more than 35. 83% to win.
>Paul_Holser: GINP B10 PI.NG +28 106
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABHLNO 12I HOBNAiL +79 214
#note Strong choice but not best - HOBNAIL(ED) plays for 80 at D4 and doesn't play with fire by slotting the triple. An equity slip? Absolutely. Was this a blunder? Hardly. Did this equity slip cost me the game? Quite possibly.
>Paul_Holser: AEGLMNT N8 TEGM.NAL +78 184
#note What does Paul do with this if I play HOBNAIL(ED) on my last turn? GLAM for 32?
>Jim_Burlant: AEOPTUZ 15K AZO.E +72 286
#note Well that certainly worked. No real change - still sitting pretty at 90% to win. Other options include A8 ZOUAVE, 8L ZETA.
>Paul_Holser: ADHIOT O4 DHOTI +39 223
#note Paul told me post-mortem he passed up 15H THIAZOLE - he didn't want to give me a spot for the cheap X bomb.
>Jim_Burlant: AIPTTUY 4C YAUTI. +18 304
#note Was wishing that Paul had floated an I at 3E; PITUITARY would have been a sweet play. As for this, the pool is slightly consonant-heavy, so short plays like YIP L2, AY N5, etc. didn't appeal to me as I thought they'd leave me hamstrung on my next turn. I didn't see the best play here, which is a word I almost never find: YUAN 13L. That said, this is a very strong choice. Not only does it clean out the rack, but it takes away rows 3, 4, and 5 while simultaneously adding a small bit of resistance to the F column. Tnd the only bingo lines opened up are the C column (through the Y), D column (which wil only score 60 if he can hit anything there) and through the U. And with the blank unseen it turns 5 tiles. The sim says it's either YUAN or this. Still treading water at 89% to win.
>Paul_Holser: AUV A8 VAU +22 245
>Jim_Burlant: BEEOPTW L4 WO +29 333
#note I was more worried aI was more worriied about taking away the L column so he couldn't overlap it for 40 pionts, though I didn't like this much when I put it down. Quackle doens't like this much, preferring that I play offensively in the northwest with plays like 3A WEB, 5B BEEP, etc. Maybe so. But, in light of Paul's next rack, it was probably the best play I could have put down. As I put this down, Paul's words: "You just saved yourself some points."
>Paul_Holser: ?DENORS M1 DrONERS +82 327
#note Had I played in the northwest per Quackle, he'd have played ROSiNED for 91 giving nothing back instead of this for 82, giving me O1 to work with. Q says I'm still in the driver's seat, with Paul only winning 25% with this.
>Jim_Burlant: BEEEPTX 1M .EX +33 366
#note Took me forever to decide what to do here. Row 1 obviously had to be taken out, but how? DEX? Or BEEPED 1H? What swayed me? Paul had just drawn 7 tiles and I suspected that there weren't as many vowels in it as Quackle thinks. I thought at the time that it might be better to hold onto the BEEP for a play in the northwest on the next turn rather than dump the rack with BEEPED and leave myself vowelless. Yes, I saw at the time that BEEPED left me a guaranteed X dump, but I didn't think that justified leaving myself without vowels for only 3 more points. Quackle disagrees emphatically, saying this wins 7% less often than BEEPED, which is its #1 choice.
>Paul_Holser: AIM 5C AIM +25 352
>Jim_Burlant: BEEGIPT 3A GIP +28 394
#note Quackle wants me to balance the rack with 6A BEG or PEG. I considered PEG, didn't think of BEG. The advantage of those plays is that they don't give much of anything back at A1. I figured that if I played for 15 at A1 and he came back for 24 elsewhere he'd reduce my lead by 9 points. Just the same, I figured that if I played here for 28 he'd probably come back for 24 - 27 here, which meant either a net gain or we more ore less held even, which is what swayed me. I was right...sort of.
>Paul_Holser: CIOR A1 OR.IC +27 379
#note This wa the sort of comeback I expected.
>Jim_Burlant: BDEELRT 14B .REED +11 405
#note And if I'd played PEG 6A on the previous turn I'd be putting down DRIBLET on row 14 and clinch the game. Instead, I'm now in this position. The equity plays (J11 DOE, J11 DOR, J11 DOL, 11D EFFUSED) don't do anything to stop him from bingoing with something like GESTURES 14B, and J11 DOE gives him a potential bingo of OESTRUS. If I block bingos, I'll take my chances in the end game. I put this down to block any bingos and hopefully maximize resistance. Championship player says the EFFUSE back-hooking plays are the four best options, but I don't like them because, as I said, they don't defend anything. Quackle says this is the next best thing.
>Paul_Holser: EORSTUY 15D STOURY +38 417
>Jim_Burlant: BELLST I1 BLEST +23 428
#note This is my only tie. Everything else loses.
>Paul_Holser: E 4K ...E. +9 426
>Paul_Holser: (L) +2 428
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