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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
>Jim_Burlant: AAEGIRT 8H AG +6 6
#note It takes a while to percolate to the top of the sim, but this nudges everything else out by a hair. Having said that, the difference in the sim (not even 1/2% winning chances and less than 1 point of equity) suggests it's a matter of stylistic preference as to whether to play this or something like TAIGA or AGITA. I'd make this play again.
>Darrell_Day: JO G8 JO +21 21
>Jim_Burlant: AEILORT 10E LOTI +16 22
#note Q wants me to take a more defensive posture, but against Darrell I don't mind opening things up a bit. Q prevers 10F TELO and 9I OI. Given how limited my options are (only TELOI and 10F REOIL outscore this, and both burn the E) I don't mind making this play. And given Darrell's next rack, I'm sure glad I didn't put down OI.
>Darrell_Day: DDEFILS J2 FIDDLES +84 105
>Jim_Burlant: AABEORW E5 ROWAB.E +48 70
#note Almost missed this. Next best choice (AWA 11E) wins 6% less often and sims 15 points down.
>Darrell_Day: EP F6 PE +25 130
>Jim_Burlant: AELMNOS 3G LAM.NOSE +78 148
#note The only other bingo is this word's anagram, SEMOLINA, which plays for 64 at 3E. This scores 78 and is clearly best. Back in the game - 50% to win.
>Darrell_Day: BEI 4H BI.E +23 153
>Jim_Burlant: AIRSTUU 6I U.U +3 151
#note It's this (which is best) or 6J LUAU. Next best choices are exchanges. For reference: L2 IOTA scores 24 but leaves RSUU...and it wins 5% less often and sims a hair over 6 points down.
>Darrell_Day: APT 2L TAP +22 175
>Jim_Burlant: ACIRSTU 8A CURI. +24 175
#note The first tile I drew was the C (yeah!) and you can imagine my reaction when I saw yet another U. This is best. L2 TORUS scores 6 more, but between keeping my S and leaving myself with a better leave, this is best. 47% to win.
>Darrell_Day: ATV 2F VAT +21 196
>Jim_Burlant: ADEERST C2 TREADE.S +72 247
#note Strong choice but not best. Lots of bingo options - L6 SEDATER scores 74 but leavesa a bunch of lines open, and 11H DERATES/DEAREST score 69. This seemed like a reasonable compromise.
>Darrell_Day: ?EEHIOR A8 .HEERIOs +89 285
#note Strong play, but not best - COInHERE scores 98. Regardless, Darrell is 64% to win. COInHERE wins 70.
>Jim_Burlant: AGGHLMN 1M HAG +32 279
#note Lots choices here and they all score in the low-to-mid 30's. Q prefers HAM 1M by a bit but says that B10 HM is best. Tough call - on the one hand, the pool is a bit low on vowels, so I can see why Q wants me to keep my A with HM. Unfortunately, I don't know which is worse - keeping dupe G's to go with that A, or leaving myself vowelless but balancing the rack. Iopted for slightly better rack balance. Q says HM wins 28% and that this wins 26% and sims 2.3 points down at 1000 iterations. YMMV.
>Darrell_Day: NOTY 11H TONY +16 301
>Jim_Burlant: AGKLMNX 4B K.X +28 307
#note Crawling back in...36% to win. Next best choice, 4C ENG wins 3% less often and sims 3 points down.
>Darrell_Day: INR B7 R.IN +18 319
>Jim_Burlant: AEGLMNY D11 MANGY +34 341
#note I considered two plays: this and MY D11 to preserve the potent AEGLN stem. I passed on fishing because the big thing about fishing for a bingo is that it has to be playable, and knowing Darrell I didn't think that was going to happen. This is statically best, and in the sim it takes roughly 200 iterations to sort out - this is best. 52% to win.
>Darrell_Day: FUZ 2A FU.Z +32 351
>Jim_Burlant: CDEILOR F10 .LEIC +18 359
#note A number of things going on in my mind here. I saw 12K OLEIC and didn't want to give him a bingo back with the blank unseen. Saw row 15 plays and was scared by the unseen bingo tiles in the pool and had this vision that I'd fish VW while he hit an easy ATONIES or some such thing. I also was fixated on playing TOD/BIDED on the next turn so keeping the D was important to me from that standpoint. Post mortem Darrell told me his rack was EINNQS?. The duck says that, against his rack, a 12K play like OLEIC was my winner, winning 44%. That looks bogus, as he'll surely play Qu(I)NINES for 86 to clinch the win if I play that. We replayed this game on the assumption that I played YODLER, and there was no win for me with him sitting on all the remaining power tiles and the blank. In retrospect this was me outsmarting myself but in reality at this piont I had no chance.
>Darrell_Day: ?EINNQS 1A IN +23 374
>Jim_Burlant: ADOORTV L2 ..D +26 385
#note Per Championship Player, this is best - scores well and takes the bag down to 1. I'm still a 3-in-8 chance to win according to the duck.
>Darrell_Day: ?EENQSW 12I WEEN +26 400
>Jim_Burlant: AIOORTV 14F .AVORT +13 398
#note Missing ARVO 10J for 20. AT this piont it's just a handful of points of spread in a lost game.
>Darrell_Day: ?QS L6 SuQ +25 425
>Darrell_Day: (IO) +4 429
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