| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Mark_Miller Mark Miller
>Jim_Burlant: DDNORTV -DDNOV +0 0
#note Given that the only scoring play worth considering (TROD 8F) still saddles me with the V and gives up an easy back hook for the 12 unseen E's, exchanging is the right call. Having said that, Q feels I needlessly turned tiles, as it prefers that I throw in DNV and keep DORT. This choice wins roughly 3/4% less often and sims 1-1/2 points down.
>Mark_Miller: OPU 8F UPO +10 10
>Jim_Burlant: EIKRSTU G6 KI. +10 10
#note Took a while, as I considered PUKE G8, exchanging KU, and this. I rejected PUKE because it broke up too much of the rack, floated the E, and gave back easy plays reaching to H15. While I wasn't thrilled about keeping the U, this does set up the board quite nicely for me: if he doesn't have an S (which I do) he can't do anything on row 5. And if he doesn't have an N, anything he puts down is going to have to open up all sorts of easy through lines for me to hit. Q agrees with me - this is best, and the second best play of TUPIK G6 (which I didn't think of) wins 1-1/2% less often and sims nearly 3 points down.
>Mark_Miller: AGILNNO I5 LOANING +66 76
#note I3 placement scores 68.
>Jim_Burlant: EEPRSTU 5A REPUTES +78 88
#note No 8's anywhere, and this is the only 7 in these letters. However, the sim points out another placement I would have never thought of: 12C LOANING scores 79 and doesn't slot the triple. I had no idea LOANING took the S. The 12C placement is definitely best. This placement wins 2% less often and sims nearly 4 points down on the 12C placement.
>Mark_Miller: BBEOR A5 .OBBER +30 106
>Jim_Burlant: EEEEINT C3 TE.EE +16 104
#note It's either this or TEEPEE, and Q wants me to burn the 4th E for the extra 2 points. Sorry, Quackle - with the bag still 3/4 full and already being down to 5 unseen E's, I'm not going to burn all my E's.
>Mark_Miller: OVW J4 VOW +32 138
>Jim_Burlant: ?EIORSU 11E pIRO.UES +82 186
#note Bingos all over the place (StOURIE, SERIOUs, etc.), but this is the only 2x2. It's best - now 65% to win.
>Mark_Miller: AFLL 3I FALL +21 159
#note With him having just made this very aggressive play, I figured that he was sitting on at least one, if not both of the remaining S's. With this rack fragment, D4 FULL is Quackle's choice. Having said that, it wouldn't have stopped me from bingoing.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AENSTY M3 ShANTEY +94 280
#note Luckbox! Other bingos are M2 ASThENY and ShANTEYS L4, but this is best. 96% To win.
>Mark_Miller: Q F10 Q. +31 190
>Jim_Burlant: IIJNRUX 8L J.UX +78 358
#note While this is best, Q has an interesting suggestion: 8L JEU, which is identically strong in Quackle's eyes.
>Mark_Miller: IMT K11 .MIT +6 196
#note Given his FALL play and this, I thought that, for sure, he was sitting on an S.
>Jim_Burlant: AHIINRW B4 H.W +36 394
#note This does a great job scoring, and it's one of 3 plays that sims at the very top of the heap (the other 2 being B1 WHINER (didn't see it, and don't like it, as I don't see how it's wise to open up row 1, even if it only is a W that's being floated) and 14I WITHIN.
>Mark_Miller: INTY 12K .INTY +32 228
>Jim_Burlant: AAIINRV 14E VARIAN. +14 408
#note Right idea, wrong execution. While this provides some resistance and does eliminate bingos ending in S, this still allows plays in the neighborhood of 40 points at 15K. 14I VITRAIN, which I couldn't think of, does a much better job both defending against bingos as well as killing 15K. This isn't one of the original kibbitzer choices and it's 4th best in win percentage, but that's kind of misleading: VITRAIN wins 100%, and this, along with practically any of the other options, wins 99.98%. VITRAIN should have been the play.
>Mark_Miller: ACHL N10 LA.CH +24 252
>Jim_Burlant: DDEEGIR 15F GED +29 437
#note Q wants me to burn more of the rack with REDD 15F or EDGE 15G. I saw this, saw 29 points and the DEIR leave, and thought that was good enough.
>Mark_Miller: FO O14 OF +20 272
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGIRS B9 SEDGIER +78 515
#note And when it's your game, it really is your game. I was utterly shocked when I pulled the S, and it certainly makes me glad I kept the rack together on the previous turn. This is the only bingo.
>Mark_Miller: ADIOORT A13 ADO +23 295
>Jim_Burlant: ACDEMNZ D4 M.D +36 551
#note Didn't see ADZ 13G and ZEIN 13I. I saw that I could dump the DM for 36 and didn't look hard enough for the best Z play once I figured to play LEZ L3 on my next turn. Best looks to be ZEIN 13E.
>Mark_Miller: AIIORT 13F TAR +16 311
>Jim_Burlant: ACENZ L3 .EZ +37 588
>Mark_Miller: IIO L8 .O +14 325
>Jim_Burlant: ACN F2 CAN. +12 600
>Jim_Burlant: (II) +4 604
#note My all-time high game.
|
