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#player1 Leesa_Berahovich Leesa Berahovich
#player2 JD JD
>Leesa_Berahovich: EEHLMT 8D HELMET +30 30
#note Leesa had beaten me five games in a row going into this game. I wanted to beat her!
>JD: ?ABOOSV E4 ABOV. +20 20
#note ABOVE leads to an average of 70 points a turn for me next turn, and yet doesn't sim best. ABOVE sacrifices some points compared to AVOS, but the real reason it doesn't sim so well is because ABOVE gives her so many cheap points at either D1 or F4. It would still be hard for me to pull the trigger on AVOS, and yet it sims very comfortably better on 2 and 4-ply of any length. Food for thought. I think I would take AVOS on reflection.
>Leesa_Berahovich: APW D4 PAW +33 63
>JD: ?BHORST J5 BORScHT +83 103
#note I definitely know BORSHTS and yet for some reason I didn't look for it. my brain was not working on full cylinders at this point due to lack of sleep.
>Leesa_Berahovich: ?CEGINN 11F sCEN.ING +70 133
#note CENSING is better, and part of the reason why I should've played BORSHTS
>JD: GIJNORT H10 R.JOIN +63 166
>Leesa_Berahovich: DIKR L8 DRI.K +24 157
>JD: DFGLRTU 14F GU.LD +15 181
#note FUGLE looks pretty good. I think she was frowning at her letters, and DRT gets me much closer to a bingo than FRT.
>Leesa_Berahovich: DUW F2 WUD +21 178
>JD: EFFIORT 15J EFFORT +51 232
>Leesa_Berahovich: CIY K3 ICY +30 208
>JD: EIISSTU 12H .US +24 256
>Leesa_Berahovich: EXY 8L .EXY +45 253
>JD: AEEIIST N7 I.IA +13 269
#note I really hated letting her score cheap points at 7M after DEXY went down, but my rack is really much better after GIE. With the bag the way it is, it's also actually quite hard for her to use that spot. EEST is pretty weak.
>Leesa_Berahovich: DM 7M D.M +20 273
>JD: EEENSTT 4K .ETE +12 281
#note it seemed reasonable to set up a spot for my S and sacrifice two points. On a tight board, creating such scoring spots that I am more likely to use tends to pay off. quackle doesn't really agree. I dunno.
>Leesa_Berahovich: LUZ M2 LU.Z +26 299
>JD: AEINNST 6D ..N +8 289
#note the moment of truth...with so many As unseen, it seemed fair to take a shot at ENTASIA at 9A with backup shots at either the H or the E (I thought there were 6 As). The options if I played through did not look spectacular, and I figured I would get to fish for ENTASIA at least twice at the very least. With that said, I didn't spot TINEA at N1. I would at least have to give it some thought. Maybe I would end up taking TINEA. All in all, I don't think she'll block ENTASIA, which means I'll probably get at least 3 shots at hitting it - 50% or so. Along with other random bingos I might hit, I think I might have a 2/3 chance of bingoing eventually, and in maybe 10-20% of those situations she will bingo back or find another way to win. I don't think my position after TINEA is that great, but by playing WON I deprive myself of the chance of getting to outplay my opponent down the stretch - instead, I am gambling. Ultimately I think it may be very close to a toss-up. At the very least I am 8/25 to bingo next turn assuming a random draw.
>Leesa_Berahovich: GOO 12D GOO +9 308
>JD: AEINOST N14 O. +4 293
#note given a choice of nearly identical scores for fishing it seems worth trying to accomplish something in the process. quackle actually likes OW at 2E because the pool makes it hard for her to kill me at the spot. I played OR in order to block cheap scores on row 14 (although I don't see anything that she would have there anyway). One play I specifically don't like is LO at 2M - if I block that QI spot she'll block 9C and block ENTASIA!
>Leesa_Berahovich: AL I5 AL +12 320
>JD: AEINSTT 5C T.. +5 298
#note Had I hit an A or an R my bingo would still fit. The T was the one tile I could draw that this play blocked. however, the T is a nice tile to draw since it lets me create a great new lane!
>Leesa_Berahovich: EIINORS B2 NOISIER +74 394
#note ouch! I think this is pretty bad luck.
>JD: AAEINST A6 TAENIAS +84 382
#note quackle doesn't do 3 in the bag pre-endgames perfectly (even though in this case there would only be 720 combos to go through) but it looks like I win 25% of endgames after this or so. I think I win if I draw an out.
>Leesa_Berahovich: AEEPQRV N1 RAP. +20 414
#note props to leesa for trusting her tracking here.
>JD: AAE 4A A. +3 385
>Leesa_Berahovich: EEQV 3J Q. +11 425
>JD: AE M11 .AE +14 399
#note we both played the endgame totally right.
>JD: (EEV) +12 411
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