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#player1 Rafi_Stern Rafi Stern
#player2 JD JD
>Rafi_Stern: DENUW 8H UNWED +22 22
>JD: ADEOTTW 9K TOW +15 15
>Rafi_Stern: EINX 7F NIXE +25 47
>JD: ADEERST 10H SEDATER +76 91
>Rafi_Stern: GINOR H10 .IGNOR +27 74
>JD: EFHIKOO 8A HOOKIE +56 147
#note the moment of truth...the longer this stayed on the board the more convinced I was that it was coming off (he held for a few minutes). then again, it is so much better than my best real play that I should go for it even if I think there is only a 50% chance of it staying on.
>Rafi_Stern: AALO D8 .OALA +18 92
>JD: ABEFILS 15F BA.FLIES +64 211
#note overlooked fishable, although this takes out an easier lane
>Rafi_Stern: ADORSTY F4 STO..YARD +67 159
#note bold! here are some numbers I wrote down - 95% chance of me winning if I challenge it off, 80% chance of winning if I accept it, 60% chance if I challenge and it's good. quackle agrees with these estimates pretty well, although my winning chances are more like 70% even if I lose a turn challenging. From that, you can figure out that I need to think that it has about a 50% chance of being good to leave it on -and I think my estimate was 30%, but I still chickened out and left it on.
>JD: EEEHINU 4F .HEENIE +22 233
>Rafi_Stern: IQS M13 QI. +24 183
>JD: ?AEORRU H1 ROU. +12 245
#note this play was tricky. once I figured out that no bingos fit I wanted to give myself an easier lane to make sure I woudn't miss again.
>Rafi_Stern: IJN N12 JIN +35 218
>JD: ?ABERSZ 2B ZEBRAn.S +90 335
#note I passed up zebrass because I wasn't positive about sheenier.
>Rafi_Stern: AFO 3A OAF +33 251
>JD: AEELMPU 5A PLUMA.E +27 362
#note ampul setting up the case E is pretty tempting. I didn't think o it.
>Rafi_Stern: CGI K3 C.G +12 263
>JD: ADEGPRT E10 GAD +25 387
#note I either chickened out of portaged or flat out missed it. I think I missed it entirely.
>Rafi_Stern: UV 12H .UV +7 270
>JD: EPRTTVY B7 P.VERTY +17 404
#note apparently he had nothing through the H but I wanted to make sure to take it out in case.
>Rafi_Stern: ?CIIMNT A12 eMIC +29 299
#note rafi didn't realize that I couldn't go out so he burned the blank for the extra point!
>JD: LT 14G L. +4 408
>Rafi_Stern: INT 6C TI +8 307
#note now he can't go out either!
>JD: T M9 ..T +6 414
>JD: (N) +2 416
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