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#player1 Darrell_Day Darrell Day
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Darrell_Day: LOX 8G LOX +20 20
>Jim_Burlant: BBGRRRT -BBGRR +0 0
#note Yuck! In case you're keeping track, this is the second opening rack I've had to exchange this day. This is best; exchange 6 keeping R is runner up. Interestingly, the bronze medalist (1% and roughly 2 points down on this) is exchange 5 keeping BR.
>Darrell_Day: AEMNSTY G3 MESNA.TY +68 88
#note Q prefers 7I AMNESTY; I didn't ask Darrell about this, but he may have been trying to draw the challenge. With my rack, there wasn't much reason to hold. This wins 77%, but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: ?DOPRST 5E Di.PORTS +90 90
#note The only 2x2. Of note: 4A DOORSTEP, PASTURED, POSTURED.
>Darrell_Day: BEFIR F10 BRIEF +37 125
>Jim_Burlant: DEEINQW 4D QI +25 115
#note Best; L3 placement wins roughly 2% less often and sims roughly 4 points down in a short sim.
>Darrell_Day: EKLV 12C KEV.L +24 149
>Jim_Burlant: DEEINNW K3 EN.WINED +62 177
#note The only bingo, and I'm now winning 54%.
>Darrell_Day: BO 7G .BO +20 169
>Jim_Burlant: AAGNOSW 15A WAGONS +44 221
#note I figured that the slightly weaker defensive position (i.e., more more likely for a potential 8 to end in ING than in W) of GOWANS made this a better choice than GOWANS. The sim agrees, saying that GOWANS results in a somewhat higher opponent bingo percentage than WAGONS. It's close though - this wins 69% to 68.9% for GOWANS. The bronze medal option option is H12 SWAG (wins 66.5% and sims 4 points down on this). Not much worth considering past those choices.
>Darrell_Day: OY 9G .OY +32 201
>Jim_Burlant: ?AFIOPR 14A OF +25 246
#note Q gives slight preference to row 13 plays like 13C IF and 13B OAF. Upon first glance it's counterintuitive to keep the O and unload the I, but a look at the tile pool shows why IF might be better: OO vs IIIII unseen. This doesn't fare too badly though; OAF 13B wins 86.68%, and this wins 86.1 and sims barely 2-1/2 points down.
>Darrell_Day: CMU H1 CUM +27 228
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEIJPR D6 JAPERI.s +69 315
#note I considered 2 choices: a J fish, looking for an A for CAPOEIRA, and this choice. What swayed me was that, since I didn't see something preserving a balanced 3-tiles+blank leave that scored in the high 30's, I couldn't turn down the 69 points. For 65 I might have just fished the J. I didn't look hard enough to find the best play, however: JANE 4I scores 37 and preserves IPR?. JANE is best and wins 92%; this wins just over 90 and sims nearly 9 points down.
>Darrell_Day: AEINRTU 8C U. +4 232
#note Darrell and I did an extensive post-mortem on this game, and this was his actual rack. It wasn't a strategic ploy to pass up ANURETIC; he missed it. The sim says that ANURETIC (the only playable bingo) wins 32% and that this choice wins 10. Hard to believe, but this mistake on Darrell's end turned the game in his favor, as it forced me into an I-know-better-than-this mistake on the next turn.
>Jim_Burlant: ADEGHRT B6 HATED +26 341
#note Since Darrell was obviously close to something, which line was my priority to defend? The B column with any number of easy 7's? Or row 1 (on which many of the bingos are airballs through the C) and concede the B column? I figured the B column was easier to hit, so I took that out first. That said, while Darrell told me post-mortem that he really liked this choice from this rack, I don't think it was right. If I wanted to kill the B column, I should have played something like cheaper like HAG or DAG at B8 and not created any sort of A column threat. What incorrectly swayed me at the time was that HATED (a) turned 5 tiles instead of 3 and (b) added 22 more points to my lead. I figured that, worst-casing it, even if he hit ZANIEST A1, it would have still been my turn in a tied game and I'm still probably up 20 - 25 points after my turn. Q says L1 HADES 33 is the star, and that the B8 plays I should have put down (DAG or HAG) win roughly 1% more often than this. If had known his rack, HADES or HATES probably would have won me the game. The 2-ply sim says this wins just shy of 97% and many ply says I'm 92% to win. But watch what happens.
>Darrell_Day: AAEINRT 1H .RANIATE +83 315
#note Best bingo for Darrell - he's winning just under 18%.
>Jim_Burlant: ADGHRRU A5 DUH +17 358
#note The only play that scores reasonably well is 2M HAD, and that addles me with the GU combination. If I do that, I may not be able to defend the A column on my next turn depending on my next draw. Since nothing else scored particuarly well, my main concerns were shutting down the A column and unloading the U. Between the unseen AAEEEEIIII and that there were no more R's in the bag, I felt I could get away with keeping AGRR. Quackle doesn't like this much, and its preferred choices are a bunch of stylish plays at 3E that few humans would ever find: RUMMAGED/RUMMAGER/RUMMAGE. Cool plays, yes, but they don't defend anything. Post-mortem, given this rack and the board, Darrell liked this choice, as it shut down the A column, pushed my lead back to 43 points, and unloaded the U. At least I've bailed myself out of the HATED mistake.
>Darrell_Day: EEGLNTV M1 .VE +12 327
#note Again, this was Darrell's actual rack. Darrell's rationale for this play was that, with IIII unseen, he felt that, by keeping EGLNT, he'd have a good shot at an I that would give him a good shot at bingoing. Q agrees with his choice - it's his best play and it wins 20%.
>Jim_Burlant: AAGILRR 2M .AR +18 376
#note What inference do you draw after his play of AVE? That his rack was something like AEEESVZ and that he was looking for an I for SIZE H12? Or was he fishing for a bingo? Q's preference here is to not bother defending; instead, it says I should turn this rack with either A9 AIRGLOW or AGRIA/ARGIL at J10, presumably looking for turnover on the assumption that I'll either draw into a bingo with this relatively balanced pool if he hits SIZE H12, or perhaps into SIZE if he bingos? I dunno. Post-mortem, Darrell's assessment was that VAR was the play I absolutely had to make. I'm still 77% to win according to the sim; his next rack takes that to 0.
>Darrell_Day: EGIILNT 14F .ILETING +64 391
#note This is his only bingo, and simmed many-ply against my rack of AIGLRTU, he's more than 65% to win.
>Jim_Burlant: AGILRTU L12 LU.G +14 390
#note I was incredibly irked that I hadn't landed an E for IRATE 15H and didn't see a win. Playing the game over in the sim confirms that I don't have a win, as I've whiffed on the Z. Perhaps that's where AIRGLOW would have possibly given me a chance? Post-mortem, Darrell and I agreed: had I landed the Z, this would have been a very interesting and tricky end game, with gamesmanship dictating the outcome. With him sitting in possession of the case S and the Z, I had no win. As for this - I suspected there were better plays available, but at this point I just gave up.
>Darrell_Day: ACEOOSZ J1 .ZO +34 425
>Jim_Burlant: AEIIRT J10 AI +9 399
>Darrell_Day: ACEOS H12 SO.E +29 454
>Jim_Burlant: EIRT 8K .ITRE +18 417
#note The irony of this: if Darrell finds ANURETIC, he probably loses this game. In that scenario, I play GRAPH for 33. Even assuming the worst case draw from the 4 tiles I did pick after I played HATED, I'm in much better shape drawing those to DET than the GR that HATED left me. Besides keeping my E (a big problem I had with the late game here was the lack of an E for something like IRATE 15H), with ANURETIC on the board, the right side of the board would have been pretty much dead and it may have been easier for me to defend if he tried to open. Instead, look at what happened. Bizarre. Losing this one really hurt, and it was a microcosm of everything that had gone wrong on day 1.
>Jim_Burlant: (AC) +8 425
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