| Player 1 |
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#player1 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
#player2 Matt_Canik Matt Canik
>Jim_Burlant: ABELOOO 8D OBOLE +16 16
#note Maybe a little too much of a good thing in the turnover department. This sim takes a while to settle in and establish a pecking order. This is the silver medalist, simming 3 points and 1.3% winning chances down on the best play, which I find a bit of a surprise: exchange OOO.
>Matt_Canik: AEGIJLV 7D JAG +27 27
#note I am fully aware I played like ass this game. Please don't judge me, I promise I play better sometimes.
J(O)VIAL
>Jim_Burlant: ACEIILO 9F OI +10 26
#note No really great optoins here. Best is apparently 6E CEILI, which I didn't see. This wins roughly 1.3% less often, but this works out.
>Matt_Canik: EEILNOV 10C OVINE +20 47
#note Static preferred VOE 9B, but the sim likes this. It's a little reckless/aggressive and unlike me, but I'm trying to open things up in my game.
>Jim_Burlant: ABCEILT B6 CITABLE +90 116
#note Well that worked out. Best, however, is H1 CELIBATE or CITEABLE 89. I didn't see CELIBATE, and couldn't remember if CITEABLE was good, so I took no chances. This sims roughly 4 points and 2% winning chances down on those plays. I'm 72% to win.
>Matt_Canik: ?CEEIIL 12A C.ILI +20 67
#note I just can't leave A12 open, he hits it for cheap and is suddenly winning by 100 if I play VICE.
>Jim_Burlant: DEMMUWY 11G DUMMY +31 147
#note Rushed this a little bit. Saw the sim winner, A7 MUM 35 after I hit the clock. I'm still in good shape, though. This is 78% to win and MUM is 80. But those numbers are about to go down.
>Matt_Canik: ?ADEETX 7H rETAXED +67 134
#note Bingoing is right for Matt here, and this or bETAXED are the only bingos. He's winning just shy of 30%.
>Jim_Burlant: AENNORW H11 .NWON +27 174
#note Too bad DUMMY blocked the T: WANTONER would have been nice. Anyway, this is best, and I'm still in the driver's seat at 65%. 13C NONWAR and 6J ENOW are strong choices as well.
>Matt_Canik: AEEORRS 6L ORE +21 155
#note This is just unexcusable. REASO(N)ER 15C.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEENRW A12 .REW +27 201
#note I considered the rack balancers like EWE I13 or 5M and felt that they gave up a little too much on the scoreboard to this. Not thrilled to be keeping duplicated E's, but already there are only 3 left in the bag so I don't know if it's that critical to unload two of them at once right now. This sims way down the list, but in reality anything is pretty much as good as anything else. N2 WEENED wins the sim; this sims barely 2-1/2 points and not quite 2% winning chances down on WEENED.
>Matt_Canik: AEPRSSV 14H .VERPASS +80 235
#note Best bingo for Matt, and he's now in the driver's seat, winning 59% in a short sim.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEEHKN A7 KEA +35 236
#note I had this nagging feeling I missed something on this turn, and I did. HEArKEN 10I scores 85 and wins 75%. But some misses are better than others, and this could have been worse. This still scores very well and still wins 62. I chose this instead of KEN due to the pool: AAAA unseen vs NN. Q's preferred non-bingo choice is HAKE 10J, which does clear the rack better. However, ever since I put down CITABLE, I had been wanting to defend against QUA A7.
>Matt_Canik: IIOTTUZ 8L OI +17 252
#note This is me being paranoid. OI closes down the 2nd to last viable bingo line here, leaving only a 3x3 at O8. For whatever reason, I missed ZITI(S) N10, and would have played that, but like this above any other choices. This also has the possibility of me drawing an E for ZE(S)T O12 69.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EGHHNN M13 N.H +12 248
#note Surprisingly, a very strong choice. Given this pool I am NOT going to play off my E, which eliminates choices like 10I EH. This is the bronze medalist, winning roughly 2% less often than 10I EH.
>Matt_Canik: ADITTUZ 13C DITZ +38 290
#note He set down HENG(E) I3, then picked it up and played this here. Not playing HAG makes me think he's got two Ns and not one, and not playing EH 10I makes me thing he's very conso-heavy.
>Jim_Burlant: ?EGHINU O12 GU.H +30 278
#note Either this or 10I UH. UH does a little better in the sim, but I wanted to prevent something like FAST O12.
>Matt_Canik: ANQRRTU K2 QUANT. +34 324
#note I see QUANT(A), QUANT(ED), and QUA N10. But I kinda figure with how friendly the pool's starting to look that he'll bingo in the J column if nothing else. QUANT(ED) gave up easy O1 plays, but I guess I should be willing to sacrifice the points for the extra closure.
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEEILN 4F ALIEN.tE +66 344
#note Couldn't think of ALIENAGE, but neither would have made much difference given how this game panned out. I'm 50.5% to win.
>Matt_Canik: AEFRRST 9M FAR +21 345
#note FE(U)AR 3I probably wins this game a lot more than this.
>Jim_Burlant: DFORSUY F2 FR.Y +18 362
#note Damned if I do, damned if I don't. The unseen pool of AEGIPRSTT has several bingos in it, and anything that blocks those that scores puts the Y at 3F where he can come back with all sorts of plays making PYA.The goal here was to prevent bingos while simultaneously not giving him a P spot at 2F - essential if he left the S in the bag. Championship player says I should play N2 FUD, which wins unless he's sitting on AEIPRST or AEIPRTT.
>Matt_Canik: AEGPRST 3C GAR.ET +21 366
#note And I catch a break. Any number of plays win here: GASPED N2, for one, but his best play is GRAPES or TRAPES O1. This loses.
>Jim_Burlant: DIOSTU 2K .UODS +30 392
#note Squid scores 4 more.
>Matt_Canik: PS 5D SP. +16 382
>Matt_Canik: (IT) +4 386 |
