| Player 1 |
|
#player1 Joel_Sherman Joel Sherman
#player2 jd jd
>Joel_Sherman: DOUX 8G DOUX +24 24
#note this one was for all the marbles in new orleans! I felt a little nervous, but more tired than anything.
>jd: AAAEEMR J7 E.AM +19 19
#note to my surprise, this actually sims best by a solid margin. it didn't feel like a great play, but not opening a huge X comeback is a big deal. this is the most reasonable leave I can retain. MAARE# or MARAE# both kill the sim if you add them.
>Joel_Sherman: ELNU K9 LUNE +14 38
>jd: AAEFKOR L12 FORK +42 61
#note fakeer fake and fork all sim very close. fake is a tough move to make when you have to figure his last 3 are good (ERS, ERT or something). but the fork leave of AAE is pretty bad. My inference would be that he has a strong bingo leave, which makes putting an E in the triple too gutsy for my taste.
>Joel_Sherman: EINORSU M7 URINOSE +78 116
>jd: AAENRWZ 15H WREA. +36 97
#note it woud be cool to et up the Z somehow, but this is the best play I could come up with.
>Joel_Sherman: ERS 15H .....ERS +45 161
#note held for a bit but I figured it had to be good
>jd: AGHINNZ K5 ZIN +26 123
#note quackle comes up with a play that is a clear upgrade over mine - NAH at N9, setting up big Z plays on column O. With only two Ns and two esses unseen, and it being tough to block there unless he has an O, that's a chance worth taking.
>Joel_Sherman: ABILR O10 BRAIL. +9 170
#note joel started playing very defensively because he read zin as a fish with an extremely powerful leave. he could even have played libra at l1 with the same tiles, not that that's necessarily the right idea.
>jd: AEGHIJN 8M .AJ +30 153
#note I'm pretty happy he started playing very defensively, because that gives me a route back into the game even without a prime bingo leave.
>Joel_Sherman: ILY G7 I.LY +10 180
>jd: ?EEGHIN 5G wHEE.ING +70 223
#note I lucked out big time here by pulling the blank. However it didn't occur to me at all to pass up bingoing - quackle suggests HUGE at I7 by a few points over this. He has been playing quite defensively to my eyes, which means that I wouldn't expect to bingo 67% of the time as quackle claims I will. that said, IDLY could also be a big leave with an S, or he could play less defensively because the score will be tied.
>Joel_Sherman: AEGMR F10 MARGE +29 209
#note joel was absolutely shocked when I told him later that I had only drawn the blank after raj. also, idly may have been a setup for the M.
>jd: CEENSTV H1 VETC. +48 271
>Joel_Sherman: ACOTT 12A COTTA. +22 231
#note he now has to fork the board since he's a bingo down.
>jd: EEENNSV 14A VENEN. +18 289
#note I really blew this play. finding VENENOSE just about guarantees the tournament win. I am pretty disappointed not to have seen it. having mised the bingo I was torn between VENENE and VENGE. VENENE is the more proactive of the two plays, shutting down one quadrant of the board and allowing me to close the lanes at the top next play. It's also not impossible that he could 3x3. With all that said, VENGE is a major upgrade because it leaves a more powerful leave, and because VENENE still leaves great lanes open at the top of the board. As usual, finding the bingo would've solved all my problems.
>Joel_Sherman: IIILOQT 4L QI +46 277
>jd: AEIOSTU A12 .O.E +27 316
#note my win percentage has already dropped from 85% to 67%.
>Joel_Sherman: DPU I7 D.P +25 302
>jd: ADHISTU 13A .DAH +32 348
#note I am only up 14 points now. DUP is a pretty clear sign that he's close to something, but I don't think I'm enough of a favorite here to make the blocking play of HUED. I blew a lot of time on this play, especially since my read was that he was going to bingo if I left the top open. That said, if you infer the blank I'm not even the favorite to win this game anymore - I have to take the points and hope I can outrun a bingo.
>Joel_Sherman: ?ADGOTT 2B cOTTAG.D +72 374
>Joel_Sherman: ?ADGOTT -- -72 302
#note this is it. I stared at this word for probably 8 minutes before realizing I simply could not win the tournament if it stayed on given my rack. it turns out that it's good in collins. I had plenty of time before this play but finally I decided I needed to preserve enough time to hold onto the game if it came off the board, so I challenged. He actually has other bingos that go down, and if he plays one of those, given my rack of BIILSTU, he is 75% to win.
>jd: BIILSTU G2 BI +12 360
#note not much time, I'd like to block with a longer word to get the game over faster but nothing jumped out. the problem with BI is that it scores poorly on this board on future turns. that said, UTILISE and SUBTILE are extremely tough plays to have to make while low on time (what if something fits), and I'm still not sure they would be right anyway. BI makes it hard for him to open new lanes on the left side of the board, and his leave does not work well with the V.
>Joel_Sherman: ?ADGOTT 3M GAT +16 318
>jd: ILOSSTU G12 SOS +27 387
#note the esses aren't going to do anything else here - just trying to carve out a lead lucky to draw the other S.
>Joel_Sherman: ?DFOTWY 3F D.. +4 322
#note from my perspective the pool was ADFOPTY?. I was pretty sure FOOTPAD was the only word there, and therefore if he played the D at F3 (which I saw as a prospect) he would have no bingo.
>jd: IILOTUW 14I OW +28 415
#note I absolutely trainwrecked this endgame - I need to play LITU at O1 to block his massive scoring play of FORAY. however I wanted to score enough points right away that even if he miraculously bingoed he still wouldn't be able to catch me. I was super-low on time and therefore didn't have time to realize that an outbingo on column E would be a tie, meaning I would lose the tournament. Still, just getting a play down was all I needed to do.
>Joel_Sherman: ?AFOPTY 2J FOrAY +51 373
>jd: IILTU 11E L. +8 423
#note GOUT is best
>Joel_Sherman: PT N7 P.T +11 384
>Joel_Sherman: (IITU) +8 392
#note I went over on time, so I only won this one by 21. Still, enough to win the tournament! yay!
|
