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#player1 Kristina_Simon Kristina Simon
#player2 Jim_Burlant Jim Burlant
>Kristina_Simon: DEGJNSY -DE +0 0
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIORS 8H OE +4 4
#note Interesting - Q prefers exchanging EIO to this by roughly 1-1/2 points. Given that I'm only playing off two vowels, I would normally exchange. But, given that she exchanged only 2, she was most likely only sitting on 1 and/or 2-point tiles and I was therefore more interested in limiting her probable bingo to airballs if she couldn't find or didn't have an 8 to/from the triple.
>Kristina_Simon: ENORSTW 8G W.. +6 6
#note This is a guess at her rack based on her play on turn 3. Assuming she's sitting on this rack, Q wants her to play WO 7H for 14. I don't know if I agree with that. I think that keeping ENORST together is a good call on her end, as it makes bingos with everything except JLQVWXYZ; in other words, given the unseen pool, she's got an 85% chance of drawing into a bingo if she draws 1. But, if she wanted to keep her rack together, WE I7 scores 3 more and it doesn't open up any particularly dangerous lines.
>Jim_Burlant: AAEIIRS -AI +0 4
#note 4 of the first 5 choices are all exchanges, with exchange AII winning the sim. The one non-exchange is AI 7I, which actually sims a hair ahead of this - and I think that's a bit reckless - play for 6 and give back a zillion easy back hooks to the 2x2 with her fishing? No thanks. This sims roughly 2 points down. This early in the game, with all but 3 tiles unseen, I'd rather fish to RAISE. Later in the game, with D's, L's, N's, and T's depleted or possibly gone from the pool, I might unload the I.
>Kristina_Simon: EGNORST J2 TONGERS +69 75
#note 9C placement scores 72, but this is the better play. 9C gives up too many easy comebacks at 8A. She's winning 72%, but not for long.
>Jim_Burlant: AEEIRSY 2F YEAS.IER +69 73
#note The only bingo, and it wins just shy of 40% in a short sim.
>Kristina_Simon: AINO 1L NAOI +20 95
>Jim_Burlant: ?AEGSUU -GUU +0 73
#note Yuck. Couldn't think of GENUA, and none of the options I saw looked good enough to justify playing through. Outside of AGUES 3C, nothing scores more than 16, and anything else besides YUGA for 8 requires me to unload my E, and no matter what I put down I'm still stuck with a U and possibly a G. FWIW, Quackle likes E(A)U H1 keeping AGSU? Keep in mind that, in 2 of my preceding 3 games, I couldn't draw an E to save my life and given how many awkward racks I was dealing with outside of the bingo, this didn't promise to be much better. Because of that, right or wrong, I wasn't going to give up my E that cheaply when I could keep AES?. I knew the sim wouldn't like this; it doesn't. But, as you'll soon see, I came out much further ahead doing this than if I'd tried to play through.
>Kristina_Simon: IK 1H KI +38 133
>Jim_Burlant: ?ABCESZ 4D CABEZo.S +110 183
#note Obviously a good draw for this board, but really - just how probable is a BCZ draw on a 3-tile pick out of a bag that's 3/4 full? Anyway, this is the only bingo. If I'd played EAU like Quackle wanted, I guarantee I wouldn't have scored 110 on this turn.
>Kristina_Simon: HIM 5E HIM +34 167
>Jim_Burlant: AAAEIJU -AAAIJU +0 183
#note When you draw poorly long enough, you start playing badly, which certainly explains why I missed AJAR 7G - too blinded by what looked to be yet another post-bingo rack from hell. With 31 available for AJAR, there was no need to exchange.
>Kristina_Simon: ?ADNRTU 6B UNRATeD +78 245
#note Then again, if I play AJAR on the previous turn, does she find RoTUNDA and give me a triple to work with?
>Jim_Burlant: DEEGLOR 3L GED +20 203
#note A 3L play was definitely the right call, though the sim prefers GEL by nearly 5 points.
>Kristina_Simon: EEH 5J .HEE +26 271
>Jim_Burlant: EILORTV H8 .VERTOIL +86 289
#note The other playable bingo is OUTLIVER B5 69. In a short sim I'm winning around 48% with this, the best bingo. But I'm about to catch a huge break.
>Kristina_Simon: BILORUX - +0 271
#note Lost challenge.
>Jim_Burlant: DEIJMPU 11C JUMPE. +34 323
#note Deliberately chose this over JUMPIER because I didn't want to give back an easy Q play. Q mildly disagrees, with Championship Player preferring JUMPIER by 2-1/2 points and nearly 2-1/2% winning chances. Then again, if I knew what I was going to draw, maybe I'd have unloaded the I. I'm now winning 73%.
>Kristina_Simon: NU C11 .UN +20 291
>Jim_Burlant: ACDDIII E10 A.IDIC +11 334
#note Or IODIC 13G.
>Kristina_Simon: FO F13 OF +29 320
>Jim_Burlant: ABDIOST I11 SOD +31 365
#note Q prefers G10 BEAD 23, and this is the bronze medalist, roughly 7 points down. I took a while on this turn, as I was evaluating whether I should play for an O-column bingo. Ultimately I felt that, given how my luck had been going on the day and how this game was progressing, there were too bingo killers in the pool (QUVWXY) to pin all my hopes on that. Rather, I decided to keep scoring and keep the pressure on. Having said that - while this is a very strong play, a better option was available in this vein: SAID I11 would have been better due to score (32 points instead of 31 for this), as well as the AAA unseen and more defensive board position.
>Kristina_Simon: ERW 12H ..WER +16 336
>Jim_Burlant: ABGILNT 11K BAG +22 387
#note No bingos play anywhere. Q prefers BANG by roughly 2 points in the same location; I wanted to make sure I didn't open any lines up.
>Kristina_Simon: FO 7I F.O +19 355
>Jim_Burlant: AILLLNT J12 .ALL +13 400
#note Too concerned with blocking bingo lines. LILAC 15A scores 24, and I didn't see it. At the time I thought this was an oh-so-cool defensive play, but a turn later I realized that I had potentially screwed myself. This opened up a potential LOQUAT 15J, and XENIC 15A was still possible because I failed to find LILAC (though TROUPIAL 8A was still a threat if I found LILAC).
>Kristina_Simon: AQ B5 Q.A +12 367
#note Kristina's only real mistake so far was challenging OVERTOIL and she had otherwise played a very strong game to this point. But this was the second big mistake she made. In all fairness to Kristina, drawing the Q probably sealed her fate no matter what. But this was the wrong play. It would have been better for her to play poker by letting me think that the Q was still at large. She didn't know at the time that a U was still unseen to me, and it was always possible I'd have opened open up a safer spot to play the Q if I thought I could have still drawn it. And depending on what was in her rack, she might have had one more shot at LOQUAT. With post-mortem knowledge that my rack was AILNPRT and that UXY were left in the bag, I ran short sims based on her probable racks. While there's no way of knowing for sure what she had, Quackle confirmed my analysis: her best course was to keep the Q, score (preferably at 15A), and, if possible, take the bag down to 1 while doing so. The Q was not her play, and as you'll see, this did her in.
>Jim_Burlant: AILNPRT 8A PINT +34 434
#note Best. There are no bingos in the unseen pool, so there's no need to worry about emptying the bag.
>Kristina_Simon: INOT 15A TONI. +24 391
>Jim_Burlant: ALRUXY 10L LAX +32 466
>Kristina_Simon: ETV 15J .EV +10 401
#note VEX N8 scores 13.
>Jim_Burlant: RUY A12 YUR. +11 477
>Jim_Burlant: (T) +2 479
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